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Creators/Authors contains: "Oleson, Keith"

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  1. Abstract Urban overheating presents significant challenges to public health and energy sustainability. Conventional radiative cooling strategies, such as cool roofs with high albedo, lead to undesired winter cooling and increased space heating demand for cities with cold winters, a phenomenon known as heating energy penalty. A novel roof coating with high albedo and temperature‐adaptive emissivity (TAE)—low emissivity during cold conditions and high emissivity during hot conditions—has the potential to mitigate winter heating energy penalty. In this study, we implement this roof coating in a global climate model to evaluate its impact on air temperature and building energy demand for space heating and cooling in global cities. Adopting roofs with TAE increases global urban air temperature by up to +0.54°C in the winter (99th percentile; mean change +0.16°C) but has negligible effects on summer urban air temperature (mean change +0.05°C). Combining TAE with high albedo effectively provides summer cooling and does not increase building energy demand in the winter, particularly for mid‐latitude cities. Sensitivities of air temperature to changes in emissivity and albedo are associated with local “apparent” net longwave radiation and incoming solar radiation, respectively. We propose a simple parameterization of air temperature responses to emissivity and albedo to facilitate the development of city‐specific radiative mitigation strategies. This study emphasizes the necessity of developing mitigation approaches specific to local cloudiness. 
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  2. Abstract Increasing the albedo of urban surfaces, through strategies like white roof installations, has emerged as a promising approach for urban climate adaptation. Yet, modeling these strategies on a large scale is limited by the use of static urban surface albedo representations in the Earth system models. In this study, we developed a new transient urban surface albedo scheme in the Community Earth System Model and evaluated evolving adaptation strategies under varying urban surface albedo configurations. Our simulations model a gradual increase in the urban surface albedo of roofs, impervious roads, and walls from 2015 to 2099 under the SSP3‐7.0 scenario. Results highlight the cooling effects of roof albedo modifications, which reduce the annual‐mean canopy urban heat island intensity from 0.8°C in 2015 to 0.2°C by 2099. Compared to high‐density and medium‐density urban areas, higher albedo configurations are more effective in cooling environments within tall building districts. Additionally, urban surface albedo changes lead to changes in building energy consumption, where high albedo results in more indoor heating usage in urban areas located beyond 30°N and 25°S. This scheme offers potential applications like simulating natural albedo variations across urban surfaces and enables the inclusion of other urban parameters, such as surface emissivity. 
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  3. Abstract. High-resolution urban climate modeling has faced substantial challenges due to the absence of a globally consistent, spatially continuous, and accurate dataset to represent the spatial heterogeneity of urban surfaces and their biophysical properties. This deficiency has long obstructed the development of urban-resolving Earth system models (ESMs) and ultra-high-resolution urban climate modeling, over large domains. Here, we present U-Surf, a first-of-its-kind 1 km resolution present-day (circa 2020) global continuous urban surface parameter dataset. Using the urban canopy model (UCM) in the Community Earth System Model as a base model for satisfying dataset requirements, U-Surf leverages the latest advances in remote sensing, machine learning, and cloud computing to provide the most relevant urban surface biophysical parameters, including radiative, morphological, and thermal properties, for UCMs at the facet and canopy level. Generated using a systematically unified workflow, U-Surf ensures internal consistency among key parameters, making it the first globally coherent urban canopy surface dataset. U-Surf significantly improves the representation of the urban land heterogeneity both within and across cities globally; provides essential, high-fidelity surface biophysical constraints to urban-resolving ESMs; enables detailed city-to-city comparisons across the globe; and supports next-generation kilometer-resolution Earth system modeling across scales. U-Surf parameters can be easily converted or adapted to various types of UCMs, such as those embedded in weather and regional climate models, as well as air quality models. The fundamental urban surface constraints provided by U-Surf can also be used as features for machine learning models and can have other broad-scale applications for socioeconomic, public health, and urban planning contexts. We expect U-Surf to advance the research frontier of urban system science, climate-sensitive urban design, and coupled human–Earth systems in the future. The dataset is publicly available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11247598 (Cheng et al., 2024). 
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  4. Abstract Urban areas are increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, necessitating accurate simulations of urban climates in Earth system models (ESMs) in support of large‐scale urban climate adaptation efforts. ESMs underrepresent urban areas due to their small spatial extent and the lack of detailed urban landscape data. To enhance the accuracy of urban representation, this study integrated the local climate zones (LCZs) scheme within the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to better represent urban heterogeneity. We adopted a modular approach to incorporate the 10 built LCZ classes into CESM as a new option in addition to the default urban three‐class scheme (i.e., tall building district, high density, and medium density). CESM simulations using the LCZ‐based urban characteristics were validated globally at 20 flux tower sites, showing site‐averaged improvement in modeling upward longwave radiation () and anthropogenic heat flux (), but increased uncertainties in modeling sensible heat flux (). The root‐mean‐square error between the observed and simulated using the LCZ decreased by 4% compared to using the default. Model sensitivity experiments revealed that and had comparable sensitivity to LCZ urban morphological and thermal parameter subsets. This study assessed and demonstrated the implementation as the starting point for future work on better resolving urban areas in Earth system modeling. 
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    Free, publicly-accessible full text available November 1, 2026
  5. Key Points A new semi‐analytical spin‐up (SASU) framework combines the default accelerated spin‐up method and matrix analytical algorithm SASU accelerates CLIM5 spin‐up by tens of times, becoming the fastest method to our knowledge SASU is applicable to most biogeochemical models and enables computationally costly study, for example, sensitivity analysis 
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  6. Abstract Urbanization changes Earth's climate by contributing to the buildup of atmospheric greenhouse gases and altering surface biophysical properties. In climate models, the greenhouse aspect is prescribed with urbanization and emission trajectories embedded in socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). However, the biophysical aspect is omitted because no models currently simulate spatially explicit urban land transition. Urban land is typically warmer than adjacent natural land due to a large urban‐versus‐natural land contrast in biophysical properties. The lack of biophysical representation of urbanization in climate models raises the possibility that model projection of future warming may be biased low, especially in areas with intense urban land expansion. Here, we conduct a global sensitivity study using a dynamic urban scheme in the Community Earth System Model to quantify the biophysical effect of urban land expansion under the SSP5‐RCP8.5 scenario. Constant urban radiative, thermal, and morphological properties are used. We find that the biophysical effect depends on land aridity. In climate zones where surface evaporation is water‐limited, the biophysical effect causes a significant increase in air temperature (0.28 ± 0.19 K; mean ± one standard deviation of nine ensemble pairs;p < 0.01) in areas where urban expansion exceeds 5% by 2070. The majority of this warming signal is attributed to an indirect effect associated with atmospheric and land feedback, with the direct effect of land replacement playing a minor role. These atmospheric feedback processes, including solar brightening, soil drying, and stomatal closure, act to enhance the warming initiated by surface property changes of urban land replacement. 
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    Free, publicly-accessible full text available February 28, 2026
  7. Abstract Accurately predicting weather and climate in cities is critical for safeguarding human health and strengthening urban resilience. Multimodel evaluations can lead to model improvements; however, there have been no major intercomparisons of urban‐focussed land surface models in over a decade. Here, in Phase 1 of the Urban‐PLUMBER project, we evaluate the ability of 30 land surface models to simulate surface energy fluxes critical to atmospheric meteorological and air quality simulations. We establish minimum and upper performance expectations for participating models using simple information‐limited models as benchmarks. Compared with the last major model intercomparison at the same site, we find broad improvement in the current cohort's predictions of short‐wave radiation, sensible and latent heat fluxes, but little or no improvement in long‐wave radiation and momentum fluxes. Models with a simple urban representation (e.g., ‘slab’ schemes) generally perform well, particularly when combined with sophisticated hydrological/vegetation models. Some mid‐complexity models (e.g., ‘canyon’ schemes) also perform well, indicating efforts to integrate vegetation and hydrology processes have paid dividends. The most complex models that resolve three‐dimensional interactions between buildings in general did not perform as well as other categories. However, these models also tended to have the simplest representations of hydrology and vegetation. Models without any urban representation (i.e., vegetation‐only land surface models) performed poorly for latent heat fluxes, and reasonably for other energy fluxes at this suburban site. Our analysis identified widespread human errors in initial submissions that substantially affected model performances. Although significant efforts are applied to correct these errors, we conclude that human factors are likely to influence results in this (or any) model intercomparison, particularly where participating scientists have varying experience and first languages. These initial results are for one suburban site, and future phases of Urban‐PLUMBER will evaluate models across 20 sites in different urban and regional climate zones. 
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  8. null (Ed.)